In a study dated July 2020, the Coface provides a panorama of world freight in the context of the covid-19 crisis. The publication takes into account the different modes of transport: air, sea, road and rail.
The Coface notes that the impact of the health crisis will be “significant and long-lasting”, especially as economic activity was already at a standstill before the crisis. The study highlights the hypothesis of a recovery with or without a second epidemic wave in the third quarter.
In the first case of a second epidemic wave, the revenues of the world’s listed transport companies would fall in the last quarter of 2021 by 27% compared with the same period in 2019. Without a second wave, the Coface expects this drop to be 5%.
Air freight
The air freight sector is the most affected by the crisis. According to Coface’s publication, global turnover is expected to drop between 51% and 57% in 2020.
The IATA association estimates that the sector’s losses will be 84 billion dollars in 2020 and 15.8 billion in 2021.
An ADP study confirms the trend, the traffic of Paris Airport is down 93.2% compared to June 2019 with 677,899 passengers welcomed.
As most of the cargo activity is carried out via the aircraft holds, the volume of freight transported by air fell by 27.7% when the capacity offered fell by 42% …
Maritime and rail transport
Maritime traffic has also suffered from the pandemic, although it has been less affected than air freight.
Container transport fell by 6.4% in April compared to last year, down for the fifth month in a row. The Harpex index, which measures freight rates for container shipping, fell continuously between January and June 2020, suggesting a drop in container demand.
The impact of covid-19 on rail freight appears to be less significant and varies from region to region. Indeed, some companies have turned more to rail transport after seeing an increase in air transport costs due to a decrease in capacity. Sea freight was also slower during the height of the pandemic.
Rail transport thus fared well when it could be used as a back-up for a more “traditional” mode (air or sea). When it cannot be used as a substitute for air or sea freight, activity declines. Union Pacific (American railway companies) thus recorded a record drop of 22% between April and June. The company’s main activity is to transport goods to and from ports and airports …
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