After a difficult year in 2019, air cargo traffic is expected to pick up again in 2020.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) issued a statement on 11 December on growth forecasts for the current year.
According to IATA, air transport should generate net profits of $29.3 billion in 2020, up from the $25.9 billion expected in 2019.
Air transport: a difficult year 2019
As we recently explained, air traffic in 2019 was a negative year. A significant drop in traffic, which was even the largest since the year of the financial crisis in 2009.
Several factors contributed to the decline in demand from the passenger and cargo sector.
A weak evolution of the world GDP of only 2.5% and a growth in world trade of 0.9%. The extremely cheap price of a barrel of kerosene in 2019 did not compensate for the drop in revenue.
This downward trend is expected to continue in 2020, with the price of a barrel still falling to $63.
Air Cargo Industry Forecast 2020
After a record year in 2018 with 63.3 million tonnes transported, 2019 saw a 3.31% drop in tonnage to 61.2 million tonnes. According to IATA, the air freight sector is expected to pick up again in 2020 with an increase of 2% with 62.4 million tonnes transported.
As for loading rates, they should fall by a further 3% in 2020, an improvement compared to the 5% drop in 2019… IATA expects cargo revenues to stabilise at 101.2 billion dollars for the year 2020. European carriers are expected to post net profits of $7.9 billion in 2020 (up from the $6.2 billion forecast for 2019).
The cost of a barrel of kerosene should contribute to a positive recovery for the air freight sector. Another reason for optimism is the trade relationship between the United States and China. If the détente between the two superpowers is confirmed, it will lead to an increase in tonnages.
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Air transport provides many solutions to logistics needs around the world.
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